With the geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran becoming more intense, global financial markets are very volatile — and gold is the only safe haven and the biggest beneficiary of the whole situation. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the gold prices are moving at a slow pace to reach a new record, and if the situation in the Middle East complicates further, the analysts predict that the price can reach up to ₹1.05 lakh per 10 grams.
Tensions in the Middle East: A Safe-Haven Trigger
The recent military attacks, counter-threats, and mobilization of troops by the two countries Israel and Iran escalated the possibility of a regional war significantly. Historically, gold has been the traditional safest asset in the absence of clarity — and now it is no different.
- MCX gold futures are just a little bit below ₹99,000.
- The international spot price of gold has already crossed $2,500 per ounce
- The number of people who want to invest in gold ETFs and hold the metal physically is rapidly increasing.
Why Experts Predict ₹1.05 Lakh Levels
Market experts mention three reasons why this might happen;
- Flight to Safety: In turbulent times, institution and retail investors go to gold to preserve the wealth.
- Weaker Rupee: A depreciated rupee is making imported gold costlier, hence, MCX prices will go up.
- Supply Chain Risks: If the Strait of Hormuz — an important oil and trade route — is blocked, inflation can go up all over the world and gold will be needed more to ease the situation.
What Experts Are Saying
“In the event the Israel-Iran conflict escalates into a larger regional war, gold along with it can easily hit the ₹1.05 lakh level by the end of July,” shares Meera Sinha, Head of Commodities and trading at Kreston Securities.
“The investors should get ready for the wild ride. A pullback in the short-term is possible but the trend is still up,” commodity strategist Vikram Desai explains.
What It Means for You
To investors, this is a double-edged sword. Those who already have gold might be in a good position, however, the ones who want to buy need to be very careful because there will be a lot of fluctuations in prices.
Conclusion
Political tensions remain high, and there is no indication that they will reduce soon, so gold’s bullish trend seems to be sustained. But it will either reach ₹1.05 lakh or fall back depending on how the dialog stage will be in the next few weeks.